Work in progress
Improved Early Action through Precise Targeting, Timely Cash, and Early Warning to Mitigate the Impacts of Climate Shocks
with Stefan Dercon, Rohini Kamal, Prabhmeet Kaur Matta, Ashley Pople, Munshi Sulaiman and Hannah Timmis
Grants: J-PAL King Climate Action Initiative & Weiss Asset Management Foundation
[BL survey instrument]
Details
The project evaluates a targeted risk-informed early action pilot in response to floods in Bangladesh, testing efficacy of early warning messaging, timing of cash transfers, and data-driven innovations in targeting approaches. Through a randomized evaluation, we will target approximately 20,000 households, with some households receiving unconditional cash transfers ahead of or after a flood event. We will address two critical knowledge gaps that impede adopting early actions at scale. First, they will explore the optimal timing for delivering assistance: they will evaluate when best to act by examining how households use assistance before, during, or after a disaster. Second, we will evaluate the accuracy of data-driven approaches in targeting the most vulnerable households and the trade-offs thus incurred vis-a-vis timing.The effect of timely cash transfers during an extreme flood shock: Evidence from the 2022 Pakistan Floods
with Prabhmeet Kaur Matta, Nihan Rafique, Ashley Pople
AEA Trial Registry
[EL survey instrument]
Improving Graduation Scalability through Group Coaching: Evidence from Bangladesh, the Philippines and Uganda
with Emily Beam, Lasse Brune, Narayan Das, Stefan Dercon, Nathanael Goldberg, Dean Karlan, Maliha Noshin Khan, Doug Parkerson, Ashley Pople, Yasuyuki Sawada, Christopher Udry
AEA Trial Registries: Philippenes; Uganda; Bangladesh
[Bangladesh BL | Bangladesh EL]
Details
Multifaceted social protection programs, in particular ``graduation"-style programs with asset transfers and coaching, generate sizable welfare improvements, but their scale is often limited. Two key barriers to scaling are costs and the complexity of implementation. Individualized coaching—a hallmark of many graduation programs—is one of the largest cost components and is challenging to organize effectively. We examine results from three programs -- one in Bangladesh, one in the Philippines, and one in Uganda -- in which we randomized the coaching component to be delivered during individual household visits or group meetings. While group coaching could benefit from increased information sharing among group members and improved social connections, it might reduce individualized coaching attention and accountability or inhibit some participants' willingness to discuss their problems. We find that all coaching-variants of the graduation programme increase economic activity and economic and subjective well-being relative to a control group. However, we find no differences in impact between the individual and group coaching approaches on average or within machine-learning-generated subgroups based on baseline characteristics.Ignorance is bliss? Rejection and discouragement in on-the-job search
Under review
[Draft | Replication package | Data | Code | AEA Trial Registry]
Details
I investigate the effect that experiencing repeated rejection has on on-the-job search. Using a lab-in-the-field experiment implemented with young workers in South Africa, I repeatedly ask subjects to choose between a high-return activity with frequent exposure to rejection signals and a lower-return activity with less frequent exposure to rejection signals. I ask whether subjects take costly action to avoid exposure to information on rejection by choosing the lower-return, lower-rejection activity. To do so, I experimentally vary both the rewards and the amount of rejection that subjects experience when choosing between the two tasks, holding other salient drivers of search behaviour constant, including eliminating the ability of players to learn about returns to search through experiencing rejection. I find that when exposed to (more frequent) rejection, subjects choose to trade-off expected earnings in order to avoid receiving rejection signals. I interpret these results as an example of active information avoidance.The effect of anticipatory action in the context of flood shocks in Somalia
with Michael Green and Prabhmeet Kaur Matta
AEA Trial Registry
Ultra-poor graduation programmes and resilience to climate shocks: A mixed-methods investigation in flood-prone Pakistan
with Nasir Iqbal, Prabhmeet Kaur Matta and Saima Nawaz \