The labor market and poverty impacts of covid-19 in South Africa

We use newly-released South African data to present the first estimates of COVID-19-related employment and poverty impacts in a developing country. We observe a 40% decline in active employment. Half of this comprises job terminations, suggesting persistent labor market effects. Initially vulnerable groups are disproportionately affected. Exploiting the panel dimension in the dataset and comparing lockdown incomes of job losers to reweighted job retainers, we estimate that 20 to 33% of job losers fall into poverty. Only 20% of those temporarily not working received the intended relief, while a third of job losers had no access to any major form of social protection.

Recommended citation: Zizzamia, Rocco, Ihsaan Bassier, Joshua Budlender, and Ronak Jain. (2023). "The labor market and poverty impacts of covid-19 in South Africa." South African Journal of Economics.
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